External Circular No. 019 -2020 of the UPME
June, 2020 - Carlos Umana
Regarding its functions, the UPME has been monitoring the demand for electrical energy and natural gas on a daily basis, in order to identify the impact of the measures taken to mitigate the effects of COVID-19 on the consumption of these energies.
The following conclusions have been reached from this monitoring:
- Energy demand fell in April by 16.92% compared to the average scenario projected by the UPME and by 11.10% so far in May.
- The consumption of natural gas showed differences compared to what was expected of 38.26% and 38.85% for these two months, respectively.
In light of the adjustments to be made regarding the COVID 19, the UPME establishes the following considerations:
- Demand models take as input the perspectives of macroeconomic behavior and the economic consequences associated to this event are still uncertain and highly dependent on the measures adopted to contain the effects of the virus, reason why this uncertainty is transferred to the results of the model.
- The forecast models are based on history, in other words, the behavior that energy demand has presented in the past. To the extent that the shock that we currently face is an event that cannot be compared with another that has occurred in recent history, it is necessary to observe what the reaction of demand wa before the reopening of the productive sectors, so that the predictions incorporate this new information.
Therefore, UPME has held meetings with the various government agencies in the area of macroeconomic and energy policy in order to identify possible impacts and future scenarios and will continue to monitor the demand for electricity and natural gas on a daily basis in order to identify the impacts of the measures adopted to reopen sectors and thus be able to publish the new revision of the report before the beginning of the second half of this year, under the premise that the results will show different consumption paths without being able to establish beforehand which of them are the most likely.
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